https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qj8bem/a-complete-energy-transition-is-needed-by-2030-to-avoid-existential-threat-to-humanity

Scientists backed by the Swiss government warn that widely accepted global scenarios for reducing carbon emissions to avoid dangerous climate change in reality pose a 60-80 percent probability of breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius (C) ‘safe limit’ agreed by world nations under the 2015 Paris Agreement.  

Their new preprint paper published in March, which is currently under review with the journal Environmental Research Letters, finds that only a “fast and complete” global renewable energy transition led by solar power to be accomplished before 2030 can reduce this probability to a more acceptable level of around 20 percent.