Understanding stock market returns: Which models fits best?

5 years ago
Anonymous $syBn1NGQOq

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190402124407.htm

In a study published in EPJ B, Rostislav Serota and colleagues from the University of Cincinnati, OH, USA, demonstrate the clear differences between the two models. Simply put, the Heston model is better for predicting long-time accumulations of stock returns, while the multiplicative model is better suited to predicting daily or several-day returns.

Stock volatility depends on the level of randomness associated with the statistical dispersion around a central stock value -- known as stochastic volatility. The Heston model predicts short tails for distributions of volatility and stock returns, which correspond to a low number of occurrences of values around the central return value. In contrast, the multiplicative model yields "fat" tails, governed by power laws, with a broad distribution around the central value.