https://phys.org/news/2018-06-statisticians-brazil-germany-fifa-world.html

The model allows the simulation of probabilities for the final game, as the statisticians repeatedly play through the entire tournament millions of times, from the group phase to quarter-final and semi-final matches until the final—playing through every conceivable match pairing. Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there are two other teams with very good chances: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent). The most likely semi-final pairings are therefore Brazil vs. France (9.4 percent) and Germany vs. Spain (9.2 percent), with Brazil and Germany somewhat more likely to be the winners. The bookmakers' odds see the host country Russia as the twelfth-best team overall: The probability that Russia will reach the quarter-finals is still 28.9 percent, but this probability is reduced to 2.1 percent for winning the tournament.

"Naturally, the bookmakers want to earn money with their betting offers, and hence they set their odds as realistically as possible, taking into account not only historical data but also the tournament draw and short-term events such as injured players," says Achim Zeileis. This forms a very solid basis for the model designed by him, Dr. Christoph Leitner and Prof. Kurt Hornik (both WU Vienna). Before they can use the data for their forecast, the scientists adjust the quoted bookmakers' odds for profit margins (so-called "overrounds").