https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230201084339.htm

The interdisciplinary team of researchers addressed ten important drivers of social change: "Actually, when it comes to climate protection, some things have now been set in motion. But if you look at the development of social processes in detail, keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees still isn't plausible," says CLICCS Speaker Prof. Anita Engels. According to the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, especially consumption patterns and corporate responses are slowing urgently needed climate protection measures. Other key factors like UN climate policy, legislation, climate protests and divestment from the fossil fuels are supporting efforts to meet the climate goals. As the analysis shows, however, this positive dynamic alone won't suffice to stay within the 1.5-degree limit. "The deep decarbonization required is simply progressing too slowly," says Engels.

In addition, the team assesses certain physical processes that are frequently discussed as tipping points: the loss of the Arctic sea ice and melting ice sheets are serious developments -- as are regional climate changes. But they will have very little influence on the global temperature until 2050. In this regard, a thawing permafrost, weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the loss of the Amazon Forest are more important factors -- albeit only moderately. "The Fact is: these feared tipping points could drastically change the conditions for life on Earth -- but they're largely irrelevant for reaching the Paris Agreement temperature goals," explains CLICCS Co-Speaker Prof. Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.