https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210426111556.htm

In a new study, "Modeling human migration under environmental change: a case study of the effect of sea level rise in Bangladesh," researchers led by Maurizio Porfiri, an engineer at the Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP) at the NYU Tandon School of Engineering, apply data science to predict how the cascading effects of the migration in Bangladesh will ultimately affect 1.3 million people across the country by 2050. The work has implications for coastal populations worldwide.

The new study, co-authors of which include first author Pietro De Lellis, an engineer at the University of Naples Federico II, Italy, and Manuel Ruiz Marin, a mathematician at the Technical University of Cartagena, Spain, presents a mathematical model of human migration that considers not just economic factors but also human behavior -- whether people are unwilling or unable to leave and if they later return home. It also considers the cascading effects of migration, as migrants repeatedly move to find new opportunities, and original inhabitants are displaced. The research is published in Earth's Future, AGU's journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants