https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200122122121.htm

In Chaos, by AIP Publishing, scientists Yayun Zheng, Fang Yang, Jinqiao Duan, Xu Sun, Ling Fu and Jürgen Kurths present detailed research on climate change shifts, describing the mechanisms behind abrupt transitions in global weather. Predicting a major transition, such as climate change, is extremely difficult, but the probabilistic framework developed by the authors is the first step in identifying the path between a shift in two environmental states.

The researchers develop a climate change model based on probabilistic framework to explore the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. These fluctuations, which can present themselves as volcanic eruptions or huge solar outbreaks, for example, are suggested to be one factor that can trigger an abrupt climatic transition.