https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200515103918.htm

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS) and the University of Göttingen have now succeeded in analyzing the German COVID-19 case numbers with respect to past containment measures and deriving scenarios for the coming weeks. Their computer models could also provide insights into the effectiveness of interventions in other countries. Their results have been published today online in the journal Science.

Many people are currently concerned about how well the measures to contain the pandemic have worked in recent weeks and how things will continue in the coming weeks. Scientists at the MPIDS have been investigating these questions. The team has been simulating the course of the coronavirus epidemic in Germany together with scientists from the Göttingen Campus since mid-March. In their model calculations, the researchers relate the gradually increasing restrictions of public life in March to the development of COVID-19 case numbers. In particular, they examined the effect of the three packages of interventions in March: the cancellation of major public events around March 8, the closure of educational institutions and many shops on March 16, and the extensive contact ban on March 22. To this end, the researchers combined data on the temporal course of the COVID-19 new infections with an epidemiological dynamics model that allows the analysis of the course of the pandemic to date and the investigation of scenarios for the future. According to the computer models, the packages of measures initially slowed down the spread of COVID-19 and finally broke the dreaded exponential growth.