https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/were-in-the-calm-before-a-new-storm-of-covid-19-infections-and-deaths/

COVID-19 deaths and infections appear to have slowed down for now, but as we begin to emerge from our homes in an attempt to return to normal, we need to brace for the storm to surge back.

The nation has watched Georgia, my home state, just now end its shelter-in-place order. But depending on how strictly the public practices physical distancing measures, the total number of deaths in the state, which reached 1,300 in the first week of May, could range from 6,000 to 18,000 by August, and at the pandemic's peak the number of new infections could range from 40,000 to 80,000. The peak demand for hospital beds could range from 11,000 to 25,000; for ICU beds from 1,800 to 4,000; and for ventilators from 900 to 1,900. These demands are likely to far exceed the capacity that may be available for COVID-19 patients in the state.