https://phys.org/news/2018-10-limit-tropical-cyclones-western-north.html

The team further examined the spatial distribution characteristics of the predictability limit of the TC tracks and intensities over the whole WNP basin. They found that the predictability limit of the TC tracks over the WNP basin ranges from 48 to 120 hours, while that of the intensity ranges from 24 to 120 hours, dependent largely on the location of TC genesis. The predictability limit of TCs is highest in the eastern region of the WNP, followed by the western region and then the South China Sea (SCS).

"TCs that form in the SCS have relatively low predictability, and this may explain why achieving accurate forecasts of TCs originating from the SCS is relatively difficult," says Dr. Zhong.