https://www.siliconvalley.com/2023/11/27/jill-on-money-will-holiday-spending-pump-up-or-peter-out/

The misleading headline, “2023 Holiday to Reach Record Spending Levels” from the National Retail Federation (NRF), might lead you to think that the 2023 holiday season will be a smash hit.

Before anyone pops the early-holiday champagne corks, investment guru Barry Ritholtz has long noted how flawed the NRF survey has been. He says that there have always been problems with the annual NRF holiday projections, because “the trade group, full of biases, randomly surveys shoppers on what they plan to spend this holiday season, and what they spent last year … With stunning regularity, the forecasts turn out to be wrong.”